Obsidium shuffle, redux 3

Hello and good to see you here

This will be the last post covering the individual gem shuffle in which this will cover alicite, nightstone, hessonite and zephrite and the potential profit of buying it up and deing it.

Alicite

Alicite is first up this time. Like all of the gems it can be crafted into a green quality pendant and will occasionally be a blue quality pendant. Alicite disenchants into 1-4 hypnotic dust or 1-4 lesser celestial essences, not taking into account the bountiful bag perk. Let's take a look at a formula that takes this into account along with being able to figure out your potential profit. This formula will also include the value of the blue quality jewelry and its disenchanted form too.

2NP + N(1.42)< 2.5Nb(dust)=Fdust     P= price of alicite,  N= number of alicite, 
                                                               dust=value of hypnotic dust
2NP+ N(1.42) < 2.5Nb(1/3(GCE))=Fessence          GCE= value of greater celestial essence
Nb=N-b                       Nb=Number of alicite left after the subtraction of all blue quality items

2NP + N(1.42)< b * R= Fblue           b=number of blue quality items,
              or                                          R=average value of blue quality items
2NP + N(1.42)< b * (1/3)S= Fshard          S= Value of a heavenly shard

2NP + N(1.42)< (.74)Fdust + (.26) Fessence + Fblue          Fdust= total value of dust,
                  or                                                                    Fessence= total value of GCE
2NP + N(1.42)<(.74)Fdust + (.26) Fessence + Fshard         
                                                                              Fblue= total value of blue quality items
                                                                               Fshard= total value of heavenly shards

As usual 1.42 represents the price of one jeweler setting. The 2 at the beginning of the equation shows that it takes 2 alicite for each pendant. The average amount of dust and essence was assumed from the wowhead DE table. The 1/3 in front of GCE shows that we are converting lesser celestial essences into greater ones and the 1/3 in front of the S shows that we are converting small heavenly shards into normal ones. You have to choose which has greater value on your server, either the blue quality items or heavenly shards. The final equation brings it all into one along with also showing the odds that you will get that enchanting mat with .74 representing a 74 percent chance of getting hypnotic dust and a 26 percent chance of getting lesser celestial essences.

Now lets look at examples on my server to see if this equation actually works. Alicite is currently at 11.55g on my server. I buy 27 alicite at 11.55g each. Hypnotic dust is at 9.75g, GCE is at 24.27g each, a heavenly shard is at 62.2g each and blue quality pendants are around 90g each. Now lets say you get 1 blue quality item from your crafting.

2(27)(11.55) + 27(1.42)< 2.5(26)(9.75)
662.04< 633.75=Fdust
2(27)(11.55) + 27(1.42)<2.5(26)(1/3)(24.27)
662.04< 525.85=Fessence
2(27)(11.55) + 27(1.42)<1 * 90
662.04<90=Fblue
2(27)(11.55) + 27(1.42)< 1(1/3)(62.2)
662.04<20.73=Fshard

662.04<(.74)(633.75) + (.26)(525.85) + 90
662.04< 717.896

For me the equation works but only if I get lucky and get a blue quality item.

Zephrite

Not  much to say about zephrite besides to vendor it or sell it on the ah on the days that it is the daily.

Hessonite and Nightstone  

Hessonite and Nightstone are exactly the same in the way that they disenchant. The only difference would be their price and number once you plug them into the formula. They each can DE into 1-4 hypnotic dust and 1-4 lesser celestial essences. Their blue quality version can be disenchanted into one heavenly shard. Its very nearly the same equation as alicite but I'll show you anyway. All disenchant values I used are from wowhead's disenchant tables.


2NP + N(1.42)< 2.5Nb(dust)=Fdust     P= price of the gem,  N= number of gems, 
                                                                dust=value of  hypnotic dust
2NP+ N(1.42) < 2.5Nb(1/3(GCE))=Fessence          GCE= value of greater celestial essence
Nb=N-b                       Nb=Number of gems left after the subtraction of all blue quality items


2NP + N(1.42)< b * R= Fblue           b=number of blue quality items,

              or                                          R=average value of blue quality items
2NP + N(1.42)< b * S= Fshard          S= Value of a heavenly shard


For nightstone



2NP + N(1.42)< (.72)Fdust + (.28) Fessence + Fblue          Fdust= total value of dust,

                  or                                                                    Fessence= total value of GCE

2NP + N(1.42)<(.72)Fdust + (.28) Fessence + Fshard        
                                                                                Fblue= total value of blue quality items

                                                                                  Fshard= total value of heavenly shards

For hessonite
 
2NP + N(1.42)< (.73)Fdust + (.27) Fessence + Fblue       

                  or                                                                   

2NP + N(1.42)<(.73)Fdust + (.27) Fessence + Fshard

The same explanation I gave for alicite covers these also. The only differences are the removal of the 1/3 from the S because of the fact that they will disenchant into full heavenly shards and the different percent chances of getting dust and essence. I don't believe you need another example here but if you do want one please say something in the comments.

Thanks for reading these long posts of math. I'll try to shorten down the math if  you guys wish. Just let me know what you think of it in the comments.