Obsidium shuffle, redux 2

Hello and welcome back

Sorry it took so long to get another post up, was having problems with blogger for the past couple days.

Last time I covered the potential profit of just buying up carnelians and disenchanting them. This time I will cover one of the other gems associated with the obsidium shuffle.

Jasper

First up is jasper. It can be crafted into a jasper ring of green quality and it randomly can be a blue quality ring if you are lucky. Jasper usually disenchants into 1-4 dust or 1-3 lesser celestial essences. Lets look at a formula that models this and that you can use to calculate potential profit. Also have to consider the chance of obtaining a blue quality item and also the value of said item in its disenchanted form too.

NP + N(1.42)< 2.5Nb(dust) = Fdust             P= price of jasper, N= number of jasper
NP + N(1.42) < 2Nb(1/3(GCE))  = Fessence            GCE= price of greater celestial essence,
Nb=N-b                                                                       dust= price of hypnotic dust
                                        Nb=number of jasper left after how many blue quality items you get
                                      
NP + N(1.42)<  b * R =  Fblue     b= number of blue quality rings,
           or                                          R= average value of blue quality ring
NP+ N(1.42) < b   * (1/3)S = Fshard         S=  value of  heavenly shard

NP + N(1.42) < (.74)Fdust + (.26)Fessence + Fblue     Fdust=total value of dust, 
                                                                                       Fessence=total value of  GCE
NP + N(1.42) < (.74)Fdust + (.26)Fessence + Fshard   Fblue=total value of blue items,
                                                                      Fshard= total value of small heavenly shard

 1.42 is the price of the jeweler setting. I took the assumed average of how many dust or essence you get since quantity will overcome RNG.The 1/3 next to the GCE shows that we will be assuming that you convert all lesser celestials into greater ones. The 1/3 next to S shows that we will be assuming you convert all small heavenly shards into large ones.   You have to choose which has more value, the blue quality rings or the heavenly shards. The final equation just brings it all together for one total. The final equation also has the two decimal points in it to represent the percent chance that you will get that enchanting mat when you disenchant according to the wowhead disenchanting table.You will have to choose which equations to use by looking at your server prices.

Now lets look at an example using the prices on my server
So I buy 50 jasper gems at 7g per gem. The price of a GCE is at 27.5g, hypnotic dust isn't represented at all on my ah so lets be pessimistic and assume a price of 5g per dust , blue rings at 100g each, and heaveanly shards are at 70g each. Lets also assume you get 3 blue rings from it

50(7) + 50(1.42)<2.5x47(5)
350 + 71<=587.5=fdust
421<587.5=fdust

50(7)+50(1.42)<2 x 47(1/3(27.5))
350+71< 861.6=fessence
421<861.6=fessence

50(7)+50(1.42)< 3* 100
350+ 71<300=Fblue
421<300=Fblue

50(7) +50(1.42)< 3*(1/3(70))
421<70=fshard

421<(.74)587.5+ (.26)861.6 + 300
421<434.75 + 224.016 + 300
421< 958.766

The equation does seem to work and it shows that it is profitable when you just buy jasper gems.

Pros- Can use the equation to quickly figure out profits, way faster than prospecting ore,
Cons- It doesn't fully take into account extremely bad or good RNG, buying just jasper may lead to a shortage of greater celestial essences if you do the shuffle for enchanting mats. The equation also doesn't take into account auction house deposit costs. Doesn't take into account the bountiful bags guild perk

That ended up being far longer than I wanted but oh well. Next time I'll look at the rest of the gems and I'll try to keep it shorter.

Thanks for reading, that's all for now.